In June, we warned you that the efforts by ‘Big Eva’ – largely funded by George Soros, James Riady, and the Kern Family Foundation through the Gospel Coalition, the ERLC, and various evangelical seminaries – was hurting Donald Trump as it intended.
In 2018, “Woke” and leftist evangelical leaders gathered at Wheaton College to brainstorm how to beat Donald Trump in 2020. We covered that meeting in the article, Marxist Brain Trust Gathers at Wheaton to Discuss Moving Evangelicalism to the Left. A few conservative evangelicals were invited, but they ended up walking out when they discovered the point of the meeting was to unseat the U.S. president.
Since then, ‘woke’ leftists including JD Greear, David Platt, and Jonathan Leeman of 9Marx have published voter guides or booklets have been written for the purpose of telling Christians they have Big Eva’s blessing to vote Democrat. Some liberal evangelicals – like a former lobbyist employed by the ERLC’s Russell Moore – have outright endorsed Joe Biden. Others, like Thomas Kidd, have also given their blessing to vote for baby-butchering murderers in the Democratic Party.
It appears that it’s continuing to work. But is it?
HuffPo bragged about this earlier in the week, writing, “The president’s most reliable supporters ― white evangelical Protestants ― are still firmly in his camp, with 78% saying they intended to vote for Trump next month. But even in this group, a few percentage points had been shaved off since the summer, when 83% said they would vote for Trump.”
Let me do the math for you to demonstrate that a drop from 83% to 78% is a big deal:
In 2016, 81% of evangelicals voted for Trump (see below), even though The Gospel Coalition’s insufferable humanized Wiki-machine, Joe Carter, threw a fit for not counting fake Christians who don’t attend church in the figure.
Depending upon how you divide between “evangelical” and “born again Christians” this amounted to between 10 million and 43 million votes (10 million self-identifying evangelicals and 33 million born-again non-evangelicals).
In this giant, completely unnecessary category spread, this amounts to up to 34,800,000 votes for Donald Trump. Even if you parse “black evangelicals” from “white evangelicals” you’re talking nominal differences.
However, if five percentage points were shaved off this figure, it would mean 1,700,000 fewer Donald Trump votes.
The 2016 popular vote ended with Hillary Clinton receiving 2,868,686 more votes than Donald Trump, with Trump besting her by thin margins in the electoral college – largely thanks to over-representation in rural areas (as our founders intended, long live the Electoral College).
However, staticians have claimed that about 3 million disparity between the popular vote and the electoral college outcome is all that can be sustained for a candidate to still win the electoral votes necessary to become president. In other words, if the popular vote tips that much, it’s likely that the swing states themselves will start tipping.
In other words, if Donald Trump loses 5% of his evangelical support and picks up no other demographic he lost in 2016, he won’t win in 2020.
Is there good news? Yes.
The good news is that Donald Trump is gaining supporters in the black and Hispanic community commensurate with what he’s losing in evangelicalism. And the irony is sweet; the evangelical talking point against Donald Trump is that he’s racist. It would only make sense in God’s divine irony to make up for his evangelical losses in minority communities.
There is also good news…Donald Trump exceeded evangelical vote expectations in 2016 and polls showed him doing far less well than an 81% majority. This means that if evangelicals are polling now at 75% it’s likely he’s doing better in reality than he did in 2016 when his projected numbers were even lower.
In the end, we will pray that the perceived loss of evangelical voters supporting Trump is due to their fear to answer the survey honestly on account of Trump Derrangement Syndrome. We suspect that’s the case.